Davis Mills has a long way to go



It’s probably like we’ve picked Davis Mills here on the Battle Red Blog lately. Well, it is somewhat true! I wrote something about him, and Kenneth wrote an article on his advanced stats.

Here’s another article on his stats, but there are two introductory aspects to this article. First of all, the credit is due, a big thank you to BRBer verisimilitude and his running mate Meltzer. It’s their baby, and I love the concept. I like it because of my portfolio management experience. It is based on what is called the Sharpe ratio. Here is the Sharpe ratio as a formula:

We’re always working on asset return and risk-free return, so for the most part we are looking at value / standard deviation. For us, in terms of Davis Mills analysis, the value is the Quarterback Rating (QBR). The standard deviation is that of the QBR.

To break it down a bit: a high standard deviation is a bad thing. For our purposes, this is the fluctuating QBR from game to game. If, say, a player has a QBR of 23.4 in one game and then a QBR of 141.7 in another game, that’s a high standard deviation. It’s bad. Think of it this way: standard deviation is the measure of stability from game to game. It is a measure of consistency. You don’t want big changes. Understood? Good.

The data here is derived from all QB games since 2019. Let’s start with a graph. Everyone loves point clouds, don’t they?

In this table here, the goal is to be in the lower right corner. Additionally, you can see backups in red and starters in blue.

Any idea where Davis Mills is? Let me help you by putting Mills’ performance in the context of some other quarterbacks.

# 1 is the mighty Luke Falk. # 2 is Justin Fields. # 3 is Brandon Allen.

# 4 is Davis Mills.

Listen, I get it. The overall sample size is quite small. The Davis Mills sample size is small (TWSS?). Having said that, Mills both have low QBR and are surprisingly inconsistent. This is not the recipe for success. It’s Brooklyn BBQ.

Back to the table. Who is # 5? Drew Brees.

There is one more thing to consider. In this modern era of QBs, there is also the rush aspect. So far Mills is 7/8 rushing. It is absolutely worthless to run the ball.

My biggest concern with Nick Caserio’s front office is that they see Davis Mills as the long term solution. There was even this from a press conference yesterday:

Davis Mills is not that kind of guy, no matter what David Culley says. Advanced stats don’t like it. The Sharpe ratio doesn’t like it. My eyes don’t like it. Davis Mills turned out to be a tough guy, but so was Brock Osweiler.

Mills still has a long way to go to be still mediocre. This is a major issue for the future of this franchise. Davis Mills has shown no indication that he is the answer to the most important position on the pitch. QB is to be tackled early and often by Nick Caserio and the Texans in 2022. If not, it’s a blatant indictment of Caserio’s abilities as chief executive.



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