Analysis of Putin’s military aggression | Trinidad and Tobago News Blog

By Dr Kwame Nantambu
September 03, 2022

In 2008, Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Georgia. In 2014, he repeated military history by invading Crimea. No wonder, then, that on February 24, 2022, Russian President Putin once again repeated military history with his illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin has always claimed that it was “an act of self-defense” and “a special military operation” aimed at the “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine.

The harsh inherent and salient geopolitical reality is that when Russian President Vladimir Putin militarily invaded Ukraine, he breached/violated independent nation-state sovereign international law. Indeed, these three aforementioned foreign military aggressions should suggest that Russian President Putin assumed that he could act and pursue military policies with a modicum of geopolitical and legal invincibility. Furthermore, he clearly understands that international legal power and control resides in the ratified “right of veto” clause enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations. They DO NOT lie in imposing penalties.

The salient point of the matter is that Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical master plan is to restore today’s Russia to the era of the global heyday of the then superpower, the Soviet Union “by all necessary means”.

Vladimir Putin is totally convinced that he cannot be stopped. And with the current structure of the ratified and signed United Nations Charter of June 26, 1945, he may well be right.

In other words, the imposition of severe and draconian economic sanctions on Russia by European countries only addresses the effect of Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine. They do NOT care about the cause of this invasion.

In other words, history suggests that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a colossal tragedy while the imposition of sanctions on Russia is an undisputed farce, plain and simple.

And this open farce dates back to 1945 insofar as “the right of veto enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations can only be called into question if two-thirds of the General Assembly (193 members) consent to it and the five permanent members of the (Security) Council have unanimously renounced this privilege. This is the inherent/endemic problem.

It must be noted here that the countries which now impose economic sanctions on Russia in 2022 are the same countries which in 1945 inserted and accepted the word “unanimously”. This word has now come back to viciously bite these countries.

Ipso facto, the imposition of economic sanctions is not the problem, but rather the solution clearly lies in restructuring and eliminating the key word “unanimity” in the UN Charter and replacing it with the word majority.

At this point, the crucial questions that need to be asked are: will there ever be a two-thirds vote in the General Assembly to effect such a structural change of veto in the Security Council?. The answer is no. Another crucial question is: will the five permanent members of the Security Council relinquish this privilege? The answer is no

The stark geopolitical reality is that Russian troops bombed apartment buildings, government offices, an opera house, a concert hall, an art school, a maternity hospital, a drama theater and a public train station on the day of the independence on August 24, 2022, which resulted in the death of 15 human beings and the injury of 50 others. Additionally, the United Nations estimated that more than 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 5,587 civilians were killed and 7,890 injured in August 2022.

The aforementioned information strongly suggests that the imposition of economic sanctions will not stop Vladimir Putin’s “war crimes” translated into “crimes against humanity”; on the contrary, only the lethal and powerful imposition of international law through the United Nations Security Council will suffice, period and period.

In the final analysis, Russian President Vladimir Putin is now fully convinced that he can act militarily with international legal impunity simply because the Charter of the United Nations protects him. The economic sanctions will fall on the back of his country. They are immaterial, irrelevant and non-sequential in addition to being totally ineffective.

In the end, President Vladimir Putin has everything to gain in terms of autocracy while European countries have everything to lose except their democracy.

President Putin will NOT end his military invasion of Ukraine and beyond until he receives an order from the United Nations Security Council – an order he cannot veto .

Truth be told: only a radical structural change in the international geopolitical world order will and will be able to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin in his ways of external military aggression.

“And that’s how.”

—Author Dr. Kwame Nantambu is Professor Emeritus at Kent State University.

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